Caspian Sea, Central Asian seismicity and seismic hazard

INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
TEHRAN - The collision of the Eurasian and Arabian tectonic plates causes tectonic interaction with significant seismic activity along fault
systems in the Alborz Mountains and the Caspian Sea region.The Alborz Mountain belt is a major seismogenic zone with active faults like the
North Alborz Fault and Mosha Fault
These faults extend from Jajarm (east) to the Aras River (northwest), affecting cities such as Damghan, Semnan, Tehran (Rey), Qazvin, and
The Alborz-Caspian boundary is prone to great earthquakes due to a compressional tectonic regime.Major historical earthquakesDamghan (856
AD) is the greatest historical event to be known as the deadliest earthquake (M~7.9), killing some 200,000 people
It devastated the Silk Road city of Qumis (near modern Damghan), highlighting seismic risks along ancient trade routes.743 Caspian Gates
Earthquake: Recorded in Byzantine sources, this event occurred near Derbent (Russia) or Talesh (Iran)
Its magnitude remains debated, but its documentation highlights long-standing seismic activity in the Caspian region 4.Jorjan/Gonbad Kavus
(958 AD): A destructive earthquake damaged the iconic Gonbad Kavus tower, underscoring long-term seismic activity in northeastern
Iran.Manjil (20 June 1990): M7.3 earthquake near Rasht and Rudbar killed some 16,000, collapsing infrastructure and underscoring
vulnerability in the Alborz-Caspian transition zone.Ardabil (28 Feb 1997): M6.1 quake near Meshkinshahr killed some 1,500, linked to the
Sabalan volcanic region and the Alborz-Azerbaijan seismic zone.Talesh and Caspian Region: Recurrent activity, including a 2012, M6.4
cities like Damghan, Semnan, Rey (Tehran), and Qazvin were critical seismic zones along or near active faults.The 856 Qumis (Damghan)
earthquake exemplifies seismic threats to these routes
Eastern Alborz to the Caspian region, traversing fault zones where the historical earthquakes in Jajarm and Gonbad reflected their seismic
activity.The Ardabil area seismic zones are recently represented by 28 February 1997 Golestan Ardabil M6.1 earthquake.Rapid urbanization in
the Caspian coasts from Astara to Rasht, Ramsar, Chalus, Nur, and Behshahr, developed along the northern foothills of the Alborz Belt, has
increased earthquake risk due to higher exposure relating to a larger accumulation of populations
Poor construction practices exacerbate risks.Mosha and North Alborz faults in the southern Alborz belt are seismically active due to the
Alborz-Caspian tectonic regime, with historical earthquakes impacting ancient and modern settlements alike.Ancient roads (Silk Road) align
with fault systems, exposing historic cities to repeated seismic events
Ongoing monitoring and retrofitting of infrastructure are vital for mitigating risks in culturally and economically significant zones.The
northern regions.The southern Caspian Sea coast lies within the Alborz seismic zone, where active faults like the Mazandaran, Alborz,
Lahijan, and Astara generate frequent earthquakes
These faults are part of the broader collision between the Eurasian and Arabian plates.The region is prone to liquefaction, landslides, and
subsidence due to soft sedimentary soils and high groundwater levels, exacerbating seismic risksThe Caspian coastal plain, particularly
areas like Golestan and Mazandaran provinces, remains highly vulnerable to earthquakes of up to M5 due to active faulting and dense
population
Recent probabilistic models integrate macroseismic data to assess hazard intensity.These highlight discrepancies between historical records
India-Eurasia collision, with major fault systems in the Tien Shan, Pamir, and Dzhungarian regions
The Dzhungarian Fault in Kazakhstan shows evidence of prehistoric earthquakes up to Mw8.4.The most important historical Earthquakes known in
killing some 110,000.10 July 1949 Khait Earthquake (Mw7.5) in Gharm Oblast of the Tajik SSR of the Soviet Union, caused around 7200 victims
Almaty (Kazakhstan) and Dushanbe (Tajikistan) pose direct threats
The Zailisky Range front Fault near Almaty has ruptured twice in the past 10,000 years.Improving resilience in these regions requires
updated building codes, public education, and integration of historical data into modern seismic models to address vulnerabilities.The
historical seismicity of Iran Caspian Sea, and Central Asia underscores the persistent threat posed by active tectonics
While advancements in hazard assessment offer improved risk insights, socio-political and infrastructural challenges remain critical
barriers to disaster resilience.Future efforts must prioritize interdisciplinary collaboration and community engagement to mitigate these
risks effectively.
This article first appeared/also appeared in Tehran Times