INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
Iron ore prices continued their downward trend with the SGX TSI Iron Ore CFR China (62% Fe Fines) Index opening at $96.65 on Friday morning,
May 2, 2025.The benchmark price reflects a slight decline of 0.10 (-0.10%) today, extending losses that began in mid-April when prices first
dropped below the psychologically important $100 per tonne level.Market analysts attribute the bearish momentum to persistent concerns about
Steel mills across China have shifted from restocking to just-in-time purchasing as manufacturing activity showed signs of contraction in
April.Blast furnace utilization rates have stabilized at 82.3%, indicating a cautious approach from producers facing margin pressures
The technical picture reinforces the negative outlook
SGX Iron Ore futures continue testing key support at $95.40, with momentum indicators firmly bearish.The Relative Strength Index trends
lower but remains above oversold territory
Meanwhile, the MACD crossed below zero earlier in April, confirming the bearish signal that began forming in late March.Iron Ore Slips Below
$100 Mark as China Demand Concerns Persist
(Photo Internet reproduction)Chinese port inventories reached 138 million metric tons last week, showing a modest 1.4% week-on-week decline
This balanced inventory level suggests neither acute shortage nor severe oversupply currently influences price action.Price Sensitivity and
Seasonal PressuresMajor iron ore producers maintain relatively steady output despite the price decline
Rio Tinto exported 69.91 million tonnes from Western Australia in Q1 2025, down 6.75% year-over-year
around $100 per ton throughout 2025, with a slight decrease expected in 2026-2027
They identify $85 per ton as a robust support level based on the 90th percentile of the global cost curve.Seasonal factors may add more
pressure in the coming months
Construction activity typically declines 7-9% from May to July in northern China, potentially weakening demand further.Traders now watch for
potential policy announcements from Beijing regarding infrastructure investment
Such stimulus measures could significantly impact price direction in the near term, potentially offsetting some of the current bearish
