Strong Start for Brazil’s Industry in 2025 Masks Underlying Weakness

INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
National Confederation of Industry
Year-on-year, the sector saw a 10.8% jump.This growth stands out after a 2.4% drop in March revenue, which reversed some earlier gains
The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics reported a 1.2% rise in industrial output for March, the sharpest monthly increase since
June 2024.Sixteen of 25 industrial segments expanded, led by pharmaceuticals, chemicals, petroleum products, and automotive manufacturing
However, nine sectors contracted, including chemicals and food products.Despite these gains, the recovery remains fragile
Industrial production now sits 2.8% above pre-pandemic levels, but still lags 14.4% behind its 2011 peak.Over the past five months, output
declined 1.3%, and analysts have trimmed 2025 growth forecasts to 1.6%, down from 3.1% in 2024
Underlying Weakness
(Photo Internet reproduction)The central bank plans further rate hikes to fight inflation, which is expected to rise in the short term
before easing later in the year
Resilience Amid Wage GainsThe average salary for Brazilian workers stands at R$3,294 per month, a 4.7% increase over 2024
Yet, wage growth only slightly outpaces inflation, and regional disparities persist.The Southeast region leads in pay due to its industrial
concentration, while the North and Northeast lag behind
Employment in industry remained stable in March, following modest growth in the first two months of the year.The sector created 181,800
formal jobs in 2024, but job creation has slowed
persist
Domestic inefficiencies, high borrowing costs, and weaker global demand limit further expansion
headwinds.The story behind the numbers reveals a sector growing, but on unsteady ground, with risks looming as the year progresses.