INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
Key takeaways:Bitcoin AVIV Ratio remains below historical peak levels, indicating a potential climb above $330,000 before a cycle top is
confirmed.Over-the-counter Bitcoin holdings are down significantly in 2025, pointing to strategic accumulation by Strategy, Metaplanet,
BlackRock and others.Bitcoin (BTC) price has had a rocky month, but recent analysis indicates that BTC could surge another 300% this cycle
mean deviation, it has signaled a cycle top
For example, BTC was $1,200 in 2013, near $20,000 in 2017, and around $69,000 in 2021
Source: Gert Van Lagen/XThe AVIV Ratio offers a unique lens on market dynamics, reflecting investor activity versus locked-in value
A spike indicates heightened trading or profit-taking, often preceding major price movements
However, its predictive accuracy lacks validation in varying market conditions, and volatility remains a wildcard.Adding to the narrative,
data from CryptoQuant reveals a notable shift: Bitcoin holdings on over-the-counter (OTC) desks have dropped from 166,500 to 137,400 in 2025
This decline suggests large investors are moving holdings off exchanges, potentially signaling reduced selling pressure or a shift toward
long-term storage.Bitcoin: Total OTC Desk Balance
Source: CryptoQuantThe declining balances at OTC desks this year stem from strategic accumulation by institutional investors, led by
Bitcoin ETFs, which total $128.18 billion in net value
another study by Bitcoin researcher Sminston With outlined a comparable cycle top for BTC
reach $220,000 to $330,000 in this cycle
Bitcoin power law fit analysis by Sminston With
Source: XCurrently trading around $104,000, BTC would need a 100% to 200% surge to hit these levels, consistent with historical peaks where
price cycles retain significant swings, as evidenced by steady deviations from the trendline
reported that a list of 30 bull market peak indicators from CoinGlass suggests Bitcoin could climb to $230,000, with none signaling a cycle
top despite BTC reaching $112,000
Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
