INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
(Analysis) Colombia stands at a critical juncture in 2025, with official data and humanitarian agencies describing the country as being in
The attack, carried out by a minor, shocked citizens who recall the political murders of the 1980s and 1990s.This event signals not just a
resurgence of targeted violence, but a broader crisis that has engulfed the country from its cities to its most remote regions.The roots of
The peace accord signed in 2016 with the FARC guerrilla group initially reduced violence, but incomplete implementation left power vacuums
across rural areas.Armed groups such as the National Liberation Army (ELN), FARC dissidents, and the Gulf Clan have filled these gaps,
expanding their presence and control.Colombia in Intensive Care: Spiral of Violence, Debt, and Diplomatic Upheaval
(Photo Internet reproduction)By June 2024, the Gulf Clan operated in 392 municipalities, the ELN in 232, and FARC dissidents in
recruitment in 2024, up from 342 in 2023
The humanitarian fallout is severe
displacement and confinement have become widespread
In Catatumbo, fighting between armed groups displaced 58,032 people in the first three months of 2025, a 20 percent increase.In Cauca and
Nationally, over 135,000 people were displaced in the first two months of 2025.The United Nations estimates that 9.1 million Colombians need
humanitarian assistance, with more than 9.8 million officially registered as victims of the conflict.The violence is not limited to rural
In June 2025, coordinated attacks in the southwest killed civilians and police, while urban centers like Cali faced bombings and
shootings.Colombia Faces Deepening Humanitarian and Political CrisisThe International Committee of the Red Cross reported that 2024 saw the
January 2025, deploying thousands of soldiers, but violence persists.Political instability compounds the crisis, with frequent cabinet
Armed conflict disrupts transport, agriculture, and commerce, especially in regions dependent on these sectors
Businesses face high security costs, extortion, and loss of infrastructure.Meanwhile, humanitarian organizations report increasing
difficulty delivering aid
fiscal regime, once a pillar of stability, has cracked under mounting pressure
The fiscal rule, established in 2011 to limit deficits and debt, was suspended in June 2025 for three years.The government invoked an
Public debt reached $203.3 billion, or 48.1% of GDP, with 56% held by the public sector and 44% by the private sector.The Ministry of
Finance implemented an austerity decree for 2025, cutting the budget by 12 trillion pesos after Congress rejected a proposed tax reform and
the original budget.The Autonomous Committee of the Fiscal Rule estimates a 52 trillion peso adjustment is needed to restore fiscal health
avoid deeper isolation and instability.
