INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
boosts Russian coffers, the outcome depends on how long the conflict lasts and how intense it is.Moscow benefits most from a protracted
conflict that leaves uncertainty over energy supplies but does not spill over into all-out war.Here's a closer look at how the Israel-Iran
Hormuz, a vital energy corridor used by Iran, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates to export one-third of the
announcement of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel sent it plunging to to $67.30 per barrel.This is slightly up from the $66.60 per barrel
announcement as Iran and Israel have yet to reach a formal ceasefire agreement
Brent crude could briefly peak at $110 per barrel if oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are halved for a month
Israel remains potential disruption to regional energy exports, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, where Tehran could obstruct
For example, Saudi Arabia can export some of its oil via the East-West pipeline to Red Sea ports, and Iraq can export its oil through
transit the strait have no alternative means of exiting the region, although there are some pipeline alternatives that can avoid the Strait
and Western countries will likely postpone further sanctions on Russian energy until the crisis subsides.Secondly, Russia would benefit more
oil, condensate and liquefied natural gas that passed through the Strait of Hormuz in 2024 went to the Asian market, with China, India,
Japan and South Korea as the primary destinations.According to Chinese customs data, Russia was the leading exporter of crude oil and
condensate to China in May 2025, shipping $3.88 million dollars worth of oil
benefit most from a protracted conflict of limited intensity
This way, uncertainty over the energy supply remains, but there is no massive shock to the global economy that could lead to a slowdown in
at $6.Analyst Pavel Ryabov said that although a closure of the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely, the confrontation between Iran and Israel may
Ryabov said of the market's reaction, including the drop in oil prices after the ceasefire announcement between the U.S
decrease demand for oil and gas.In May, Russia's Finance Ministry slashed its 2025 energy revenues forecast by 24% due to expectations of a
prolonged period of low oil prices.Russia exports approximately 4.7 million barrels of crude oil daily
An increase of $20 per barrel in the price of Russian oil would generate around $2.8 billion in additional revenue per month.If prices
remain elevated for the next six months, Russia would earn an additional $16.8 billion in export revenue
deficit amounted to 3.2 trillion rubles, or about $41 billion.
