INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
Key takeaways:Avenir Group and Glassnode data conclude that a significant portion of spot BTC ETF inflows are unhedged, long-only positions,
indicating genuine institutional conviction rather than reliance on short-term arbitrage strategies.BTC continues to behave like a
traditional macro asset with strong correlations to equities, gold and liquidity cycles, while inversely tracking the dollar and high-yield
credit spreads.A new study reveals that a significant portion of spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETF inflows is not driven by arbitrage or hedged futures
strategies, but by long-term, unhedged demand from traditional markets, and it is just one layer of a more profound transformation
underway.A collaborative report by Glassnode and Avenir Group mentioned that while the launch of US spot Bitcoin ETFs marked a milestone for
the crypto market, questions remained whether the influx of capital was authentic or merely the result of basis trades exploiting price
differences between CME futures and spot markets.Unhedged demand for spot Bitcoin ETF
Source: Glassnode/ Avenir GroupIt was assumed that all short positions in CME Bitcoin futures from asset managers, dealers and hedge funds
are perfectly hedged by ETF holdings
To address this question, a new framework was developed.Avenir Group researcher Helena Lam and Glassnode analysts UkuriaOC and CryptoVizArt
said that despite their strict model that filters out arbitrage activity, data reveals a strong correlation between unhedged demand and spot
merely probing the market, but are committing with conviction.The analysts said that the steady rise in spot ETF holdings signals a
Bitcoin is increasingly being treated as an institutional asset
This shift brings more stable capital, improved liquidity, and signs of a maturing market.Related: Bitcoin hashrate down ~15% since June 15,
macro asset, with its performance now closely tied to broader financial conditions
Data shows growing positive correlations with traditional risk-on assets such as the S&P 500, Nasdaq and gold, while inversely tracking the
Source: Glassnode/Avenir GroupIts responsiveness to the Global Liquidity Index (GLI) further highlights this shift as Bitcoin rallies during
expanding liquidity and falters when financial conditions tighten
Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
