INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
Key takeaways:Bitcoin spent the week fighting to hold above $107,000, but exchange inflows remain at historic lows as retail investors
choose to sit on the sidelines.Stagflation becomes a real risk as US growth slows, but Fed rate cuts could fix the situation and supercharge
Bitcoin price.Onchain data shows Bitcoiners accumulating, suggesting the next breakout will occur in the Fall of 2025.After briefly dipping
below $99,000, Bitcoin has reclaimed $107,000, fueling hopes of an imminent breakout
There is no FOMO and no retail investor stampede on the buy side
Beneath the surface, the US economy is flashing warning signs, while the Fed is stuck, torn between fighting inflation and supporting a
In such conditions, Bitcoin could thrive as a hedge against uncertainty
Congress on Wednesday, but it hung heavy over his remarks
environment.On June 17, Fed officials slashed their GDP forecast to 1.4% for 2025, down from 1.7% in March
Inflation projections rose to 3% from the previous 2.7%, while unemployment is now expected to hit 4.5%, up from 4.4%.Private sector data
The Monday S&P Global PMI flash reading fell to 52.8 in June from 53.0 in May, showing fading momentum
Even more concerning, personal consumption growth dropped to 0.5%, its weakest since 2020, while core inflation climbed to 3.8%.The tariff
war, meanwhile, is far from over
following the bilateral agreement on May 14, setting a separate deadline for Aug
economies is still far from being secured.As the Israeli-Iran war fades from headlines, the trade war may soon retake the spotlight, and
with it, the increased inflationary expectations
For Bitcoin and other hard assets, this macro backdrop is mostly bullish
Yet this bull market is missing a crucial piece.A bull market without believers?Bitcoin onchain metrics suggest that the market lacks the
broad conviction usually seen in bull cycles
According to CryptoQuant, average Bitcoin inflows to Binance have collapsed to 5,700 BTC per month, lower than levels recorded during the
In typical bull markets, exchange inflows rise as retail participants chase momentum
This time, silence.Binance BTC inflows 30DMA
However, as the Glassnode report shows, this money appears concentrated among sophisticated traders, hedge funds, and institutional desks,
As Bitcoin transaction counts decline and sizes grow, trading has shifted offchain, with perpetual swaps now dominating the action.Bitcoin
Without a recovery in Fundamentals and key components (Liquidity + Network Growth), the upside remains speculative, driven by leverage, not
Source: Bitcoin VectorThis raises a crucial question
before the storm?While speculation is flourishing offchain, long-term holders are quietly accumulating
notes that the ratio of long-term to short-term holders is once again rising, as it did before previous rallies around the $28,000 and
the $160,000 range, according to the analyst.BTC: Long/short-term holder supply ratio
Source: Axel Adler Jr.Seasonality supports this timing
Bitcoin historically underperforms in summer
Data from the past decade shows that between May 21 and Sept
does not contain investment advice or recommendations
Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
