INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
The US dollar traded at 5.4265 Brazilian reais on the morning of July 3, 2025, marking its lowest level since August 2024
This move followed a 0.75% drop from the previous session, as official data and charts confirmed.The market responded to a combination of
weak US employment figures, rising commodity prices, and ongoing fiscal and legal debates in both the United States and Brazil.The ADP
employment report showed the US private sector lost 33,000 jobs in June, the first monthly decline since March 2023
This figure missed expectations by a wide margin and led traders to increase bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut at the next meeting.The
probability of a cut rose to 23% from 21% the day before
The US Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against major currencies, slipped to 96.773, reflecting broad-based dollar
Iron ore prices in Dalian, China, rose nearly 2%, while Brent crude oil gained close to 3%
These gains supported the Brazilian currency, as Brazil remains a major exporter of both resources.Dollar Slides to 11-Month Low Against
Real as Commodities and US Data Shift Market Balance
(Photo Internet reproduction)The market also tracked a new US-Vietnam trade agreement, which imposed tariffs on Vietnamese goods but opened
The government continued to defend a decree raising the IOF financial operations tax, recently overturned by Congress and now under review
rate.Industrial production in Brazil fell 0.5% in May, the second consecutive monthly drop, but still showed a 3.3% year-on-year increase,
matching market expectations
Technical analysis of the daily chart revealed a persistent downtrend for the dollar against the real.The price broke below key support at
5.45 and closed at 5.4265
The MACD indicator remained bearish, with the MACD line below the signal and a negative histogram.The RSI hovered near 35, signaling the
pair approached oversold territory but had not reached extreme levels
All major moving averages sat above the current price, confirming a bearish structure.Bollinger Bands showed the price hugging the lower
band, indicating strong downward momentum and a risk of a technical bounce
The four-hour chart showed short-term consolidation after a sharp drop, with the price fluctuating between 5.41 and 5.47.The MACD remained
negative but less steep, hinting at possible stabilization
The RSI dropped to 32, suggesting the market neared oversold conditions
Market participants now await the US payroll report and further fiscal developments in both countries to gauge the next move.
