INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
Official market data from July 3, 2025, shows the US dollar traded at 5.4088 Brazilian reais in the morning session, marking its lowest
level in over a year.The real gained for a second consecutive day, even as the United States reported stronger-than-expected job creation
The government challenged the annulment of a decree that raised the IOF tax on foreign exchange and credit operations
States.Brazilian Real Strengthens as Commodities and Policy Shape Market
(Photo Internet reproduction)The Selic rate remained elevated, supporting the real through carry trade flows
Foreign investors showed renewed interest in Brazilian assets, anticipating further real appreciation.In the United States, the June payroll
report showed 147,000 new jobs, surpassing expectations of 110,000
The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, below forecasts
Despite this, the dollar weakened against the real.The strong jobs data reduced the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the next
meeting, with the probability dropping from 23.8% to 4.7%
The Fed funds rate stayed between 4.25% and 4.50%.US fiscal policy developments, including the approval of a major budget bill, remained in
The USDBRL pair traded below key moving averages, including the 200-day average, signaling a sustained downtrend.The MACD indicator showed
negative momentum, while the RSI approached oversold territory, suggesting the market could see a short-term pullback.Bollinger Bands
narrowed, indicating reduced volatility but a possible breakout ahead
Support levels held near 5.40, with resistance between 5.53 and 5.57.Trading volumes remained moderate, with increased activity in spot and
futures markets as investors positioned for further real gains
No significant ETF inflows or outflows specific to the real were reported, but global flows favored emerging markets and commodity-linked
Fiscal and tax policy debates in Brazil, along with global economic data, continue to shape the outlook.The technical picture supports the
current trend, but oversold signals suggest traders should watch for possible corrections
