INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
dollar traded at 5.4210 to 5.4248 Brazilian reais on the morning of July 5, 2025, according to official exchange data and market charts.The
previous session closed with the dollar up 0.37 percent, while the week saw the greenback lose 1.06 percent against the real.The market
responded to a mix of judicial, fiscal, and macroeconomic developments, with all figures and context sourced from official government
tax evasion, not to increase taxes across the board.Congressional leaders rejected the idea that this dispute signals a break with the
This figure fell short of the $6.45 billion forecast by economists and marked a 6.9 percent drop from the previous year.The weaker surplus
weighed on the real, as it signaled softer export performance and less foreign currency inflow.Dollar Holds Firm Against Real as IOF
Uncertainty and Weak Trade Data Shape MarketDollar Holds Firm Against Real as IOF Uncertainty and Weak Trade Data Shape MarketThe U.S
Dollar Index (DXY) closed at 96.98, down 0.14 percent overnight and 0.29 percent for the week.The U.S
holiday led to lower trading volumes, which amplified the impact of local news on the real
No significant inflows or outflows were reported for BRL-focused ETFs, and overall liquidity remained thin.Technical analysis of the daily
chart shows a persistent downtrend for USD/BRL since early June
The price remains below key moving averages, including the 50, 100, and 200-day lines, confirming a bearish structure.The Relative Strength
Index (RSI) hovers near 35, indicating the market approaches oversold territory but has not yet reversed.The Moving Average Convergence
Divergence (MACD) remains negative, showing continued bearish momentum.Bollinger Bands reveal that the price stays near the lower band,
reflecting sustained selling pressure and low volatility.The four-hour chart confirms the daily trend, with the price consolidating after a
sharp drop.The MACD histogram shows a slight reduction in bearish momentum, but the RSI remains below 40, signaling ongoing selling
participants watching for further developments in the IOF dispute and upcoming U.S
economic data.The technical and fundamental signals both point to a market that favors the real in the medium term, but short-term
volatility persists as traders react to each new headline.
