INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
Key takeaways:Institutional flows are growing, but retail interest and App Store rankings remain unusually low.A weakening US dollar or
major ETF adoption could push the crypto market cap well above its previous highs.Traders are always anxiously awaiting the start of a
crypto super cycle, which is a deviation from the traditional four-year cycle of gains following each Bitcoin (BTC) halving
Since 2021, a number of analysts have suggested a new paradigm in which the crypto market would soar 400% beyond its previous highs
by CryptoKaleo prove accurate, it is still far too early to conclude that the market has entered a crypto super cycle
The current total capitalization of $3.4 trillion is just 29% above the $2.65 trillion peak recorded in November 2021.So far, that
projection remains unfulfilled, but there are certain factors to look for that would confirm the start of a super cycle.US Dollar weakness,
Crypto ETF growth and Strategic Bitcoin ReservesOne such catalyst would be the US Dollar Index (DXY) dropping below 95, a level last seen in
Continued weakness in the dollar against other major fiat currencies would signal growing investor discomfort with the US fiscal situation
In that case, a portion of the $24.7 trillion in US Treasurys held by the public could flow into alternative assets, including
cryptocurrencies.US Dollar Index (DXY, left) vs
Total crypto cap ex-stablecoins, USD (blue)
Source: TradingView / CointelegraphAnother major potential driver is the rapid expansion of the exchange-traded fund (ETF) industry
Despite recent momentum, the current $190 billion in crypto-related assets under management is still negligible compared to traditional
For comparison, the three largest S&P 500 ETFs alone control a combined $2 trillion in assets.Despite initial enthusiasm, the US
Should the Trump administration accumulate at least 200,000 BTC, that could significantly shift market sentiment
A similar effect might come from corporate treasury allocations by tech giants like Google, Apple, or Microsoft.Retail investor interest and
sector-themed hypeRetail investor participation also plays a critical role in triggering a supercycle
Likewise, the Coinbase and Robinhood apps have slipped in US App Store rankings over the past three months.Crypto apps ranking on the US App
Source: The Block.coWhile institutional capital has taken the lead in this cycle, retail-driven FOMO still serves as the fuel for parabolic
cause a supply shock?These scenarios remain speculative and hinge on unpredictable macroeconomic and geopolitical developments, including
meeting these conditions, the more likely a surge past $13.2 trillion in market capitalization becomes, representing a 400% increase over
the November 2021 peak.This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or
