INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
Tariff curve balls lobbed at economies and markets around the world by U.S
President Donald Trump will punctuate a week of inflation data from the U.S
and Britain as well as growth and retail sales numbers from China
Meanwhile, earnings season is getting under way on both sides of the Atlantic and G20 finance officials are preparing to meet in South
Here's a look at the week ahead from Colleen Goko in Johannesburg, Kevin Buckland in Singapore, Lewis Krauskopf in New York and Lucy Raitano
and Amanda Cooper in London.1
inflation reading will offer Wall Street clues on when the Federal Reserve may next cut interest rates, as second-quarter earnings roll
in.
Live Events June's consumer price index, due Tuesday, is expected to show a monthly rise of 0.3%, according to a Reuters poll
Recent minutes from the Fed's June meeting showed only "a couple" of officials said they felt interest rates could be reduced as soon as
this month, with most remaining worried about inflationary pressure they expect from Trump's tariffs
Fed fund futures indicate a slim chance of a rate cut at the end-July meeting, but suggest easing in September is likely
The impact from Trump's trade tantrums will share the stage with corporate reports - the first earnings quarter under these tariff wars
Major banks also report in the coming week, including JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Wells Fargo while results are due from Netflix,
Johnson & Johnson and 3M.2
AND IN EUROPE Second-quarter earnings also kick off in Europe, and paint a glum picture.In the U.S., it is already not looking pretty:
earnings are expected to post their weakest growth in two years
Corporate profits at S&P 500 companies are seen increasing 5.8% year-on-year, according to LSEG I/B/E/S - a marked slowdown from the first
quarter's near-14% rate.In Europe, STOXX 600 earnings are expected to fall 0.2% after last quarter's 2.2% growth
Forward guidance will be key to understanding the fallout from this era of tariffs and fears of more levies.It's not obvious in the market's
performance though, where the S&P 500 is scaling new record highs, while bourses in Europe including Frankfurt and London are hovering near
previous peaks, shrugging off high uncertainty and moderating earnings growth rates.3
STIMULATING SPENDING Trump's rekindled fragile bromance with Chinese leader Xi Jinping must have come as a great relief to Beijing
policymakers, allowing them to focus on tackling deep-rooted economic problems at home.GDP figures due on Tuesday are tipped to show the
economy still chugging along above the government's soft target of 5%-ish growth
But same-day retail sales numbers should reinforce that consumers are still saving instead of spending, frustrating government efforts to
gear the economy towards consumption.On Wednesday, Beijing unveiled new measures to stabilise employment, including more social insurance
subsidies, special loans and targeted support for young job seekers.With the politburo due to meet around the end of the month, hopes are
high - as evidenced by soaring stocks - for more stimulus to come
Any data weakness is only likely to fan that speculation.4
A STICKY SITUATION At 3.4%, Britain has the highest inflation among the G7 - and CPI numbers due on Wednesday will spell out just how sticky
price pressures are.A deal on U.S
tariffs that was less grim than feared, and a stronger pound, may help the UK to absorb any inflationary impact
In terms of the British consumer, regular pay growth has run above 5% for the better part of five years
So far, so good.But the tax burden is the highest since the 1940s and growth in real wages - adjusted for inflation - is slowing, having
risen just 1.5%, their lowest rate in almost two years.Friday's data showed the economy shrank for a second straight month in May - not
great news for finance minister Rachel Reeves, who delivers her annual Mansion House speech along with Bank of England governor Andrew
Bailey on July 15, or for UK households and businesses.5
A TEST OF RELEVANCE G20 finance ministers and central bankers gather in Durban from Thursday under South Africa's presidency amid growing
questions over the group's effectiveness on stalled progress on debt relief, climate finance and access to capital for developing
nations.South Africa's priority areas have seen glacial progress
The Cost of Capital Commission lacks formal support and the Just Energy Transition Partnership - a collaboration between richer nations to
help developing countries transition to cleaner energy - is limping along.U.S
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will skip the meeting altogether - the second time he has opted out of a South Africa G20 event - to attend
Japan's World Expo 2025 instead.The BRICS group of developing nations, along with other alternative forums, is trying to fill some of the
has criticised its initiatives involving local currency payments as being "anti-American."
