INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
Key takeaways:Bitcoin is now a macro asset, with behavior increasingly tied to traditional risk markets and vulnerable to the same systemic
quarterly rotations, and regulatory compromise
Can the leading cryptoasset keep its soul in the Wall Street era?Trading Bitcoin like a macro assetInstitutional involvement is making
Bitcoin less volatile, to the joy of long-term investors and the dismay of short-term traders
However, its entrance into Big Finance means it is now as dependent on macroeconomic conditions and business cycles as any globally traded
structural shift in the asset market since 2018, when institutions first started to take an interest in Bitcoin.As the recent report by
ETF) and QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF), and a negative correlation with the US Dollar Index (DXY)
HY OAS measures the extra yield investors demand to hold risky bonds over safe Treasurys
Wider spreads signal stress in credit markets; narrower ones reflect risk appetite.Related: Bitcoin hits new highs, gains stability and
In other words, Bitcoin has become high-beta to market sentiment: it thrives in optimism, and suffers disproportionately when fear creeps
loadings of various assets and macro indicators on Bitcoin
Source: GlassnodeOn the bright side, this also means Bitcoin is poised to benefit disproportionately from accommodative financial conditions
deserves more attention is the quarterly performance rotation
Unlike retail holders driven by conviction or speculation, institutions often sell simply to lock in profits for reporting periods
This introduces artificial sell pressure, especially around quarter and year-end closings, which can create false signals in price
action.This appears to be what happened in the final 10 days of 2024, when spot BTC ETFs saw $1.4 billion in outflows, signaling year-end
structural and philosophical risks, chief among them, the creeping threat of centralization.Bitcoin was built as a decentralized
Public and private companies hold another 1.1 million BTC (5.3%), and governments, mostly the US, around 500,000 (2.4%), according to
BitcoinTreasuries.NET.BTC in treasuries, by cohort
Source: BitcoinTreasuries.NETWhile none of these actors can rewrite the protocol or seize control over the network, they can influence
markets, and perhaps worse, they can change user behavior
The rise of ETFs discourages self-custody
For many investors, managing wallets and seed phrases feels like unnecessary friction
But offloading custody to intermediaries may erode the very financial sovereignty that makes Bitcoin valuable in the first place.Related:
version stigmatized and marginalized, perhaps even censored at the mining or wallet level
system.Institutional capital is a double-edged sword
It brings liquidity, credibility, and broader adoption
But it may also burn the very foundations on which Bitcoin was built
The challenge now is not to reject institutions outright, but to understand how Bitcoin behaves in their world, and to resist the capture
that undermines its neutrality, resilience, and freedom.This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations
Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
