INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
growth in its June quarter profit along with a high single-digit increase in net income on a year-on-year basis according to estimates given
The margins are likely to remain under pressure in the quarter under review and is among key monitorables to watch out for.The estimates of
Axis Securities, Prabhudas Lilladher, Nuvama Institutional Equities, Nomura and Emkay have been taken into account.Here's what estimate
across key metrics look like:1
Q1FY26, indicating a YoY growth of 3% to 12%
However, all brokerages see a decline in PAT on a sequential basis between 2% and 10%
Axis Securities: PAT seen at Rs 11,693 crore, up 5.7% YoY and down 7.4% QoQ
Live EventsPrabhudas Lilladher: Rs 11,649 crore, up 5.3% YoY and
down 6.9% QoQNuvama: Rs 11,830 crore, up 6.9% YoY and down 6.4% QoQNomura: PAT -- Rs 11,410, up 3% YoY and down 10% QoQEmkay: Rs 12,382
crore, up 12% YoY and down 2% QoQ2
20,877 crore and Rs 21,345 crore
However, NIMs are expected to contract both sequentially and YoY
down 1.5% QoQPrabhudas Lilladher: Rs 21,251 crore, up 8.7% YoY and up 0.8% QoQNuvama: Rs 21,090 crore, up 7.8% YoY and down 0.5% QoQNomura :
Rs 21,050, up 8% YoY and down 1% QoQEmkay: 21,345 crore, up 9.2% YoY and up 0.7 QoQNomura expects NIMs at 4.3% in Q1FY26, a likely decline
of 7 bps YoY and 12 bps QoQ
Meanwhile Nuvama pegs it at 4.27%, which could be a 9 bps YoY decline and a 14 bps QoQ fall.The bank should report higher margin
contraction, but treasury gains coupled with lower LLP should support earnings, Emkay noted.Also read: HDFC Bank Q1 results preview: PAT,
NII may grow by up to 6% YoY
7 key things to watch out for3.PPoP: YoY rise seen but set for a sequential declinePre-Provision Operating Profit (PPoP) is projected to
Emkay is the most optimistic with a 1.4% QoQ increase in PPoP at Rs 17,909 crore.Axis Securities: Rs 26,013 crore, up 8.9% YoY and down 2%
QoQPrabhudas Lilladher: Rs 16,999 crore, up 6.1% YoY and down 3.1%Nuvama: 17,140 crore, up 7% YoY and down 3% QoQNomura: Core PPoP at Rs
16,930 crore, up by 6% YoY and down 4% QoQEmkay: Rs 17,909 crore, up 11.8 YoY and up 1.4 QoQ4
Loans seen at Rs 13,75,300 crore at the end of June quarter, up 12.4% YoY and up 2.5% QoQ.Nuvama expects loan growth of 11.9% YoY and up 2%
QoQ at Rs 13,68,600 crore while the deposits are seen at Rs 16,10,300 crore, up 12.9% YoY and flat QoQ.Nomura pegs loan growth at 11% YoY
and 2% QoQ to Rs 13,63,200 and deposits at Rs 16,34,500, higher by 15% YoY and 1% QoQ.5
Provisions & slippagesAxis Securities sees Q1 provisions at Rs 3,327 crore, up 27.9% YoY and up 4.2% QoQ while Nomura has estimated it at Rs
YoY and 27 bps QoQ increase
Prabhudas estimates a 1 bps YoY fall while a 16 bps QoQ growth.7
Key MonitorablesInvestors should keep a track on the commentary on deposit accretion and its impact on credit growth
NIM trajectory in light of the rate cycle is another important metric to watch out for.Trends in asset quality and outlook on slippages
along with the outlook on cost control and treasury income performance are other key monitorables.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions,
views and opinions given by the experts are their own
These do not represent the views of Economic Times)
