INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
Authors: TheIndianSubcontinent News AgencyNEW DELHI: Political heat is all set to rise over the next fortnight, as Karnataka goes into polls
elections running up to the 2019 general elections.
Some 2,655 candidates will be in fray for the 224 seats in the Karnataka assembly in a
literacy rate in excess of 75 per cent
birthplace for a large number of startups
We have an election-heavy calendar ahead, with polls in Karnataka, Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh lined up all the way up to the 2019
These election will keep market participants guessing
A large part of the negativity seems to be already in the price
BJP makes inroadsA Times Now-VMR survey suggests the incumbent Congress is likely to get the highest number of seats, 91 out of 224, in
religion status to the Lingayat.
Yeddyurappa-led BJP, on the other hand, is projected to double the its share of seat from that of 2013, but
that may not be enough to dislodge the Congress
The HD Deve Gowda-led Janata Dal-Secular (JDS), which is projected to get 40 seats, is likely to emerge kingmaker in the post-election
did a poll of polls and gave 86 seats to the BJP and 94 to Congress in the 224-member assembly.An opinion poll by India Today Group-Karvy
Insights projected a hung assembly, as 45 per cent of the respondents favoured another term for Siddharamaiah, while the BJP is projected to
win 35 per cent votes and the JD-S 19 per cent.
This should create a lot of uncertainty in the stock market
It's role is going to be crucial, foreign brokerage Citi said in a note to clients last week
The India Today-Karvy poll suggests in case of a coalition government, 39 per cent of respondents said they expect JD-S to ally with the
Congress while 29 per cent wished for a JDS-BJP coalition.
A win for the BJP would help the ruling party at the Centre increase its seats in
the Upper House, where it currently holds 68 seats, while a Congress win can embolden the opposition.
The Times Now-VMR projections suggest
49 additional seats for BJP compared with its 2013 tally
Markets are awaiting the results of Karnataka election to assess political stability, foreign Citi said this past week.
What happens if
market recovered quickly because although the market looks at politics closely, it also looks at implications of those changes
Whatever reforms we have seen in terms of GST rollout, demonetisation or on the banking front, the cleanup drive or on corporate
transparency, their multiplier effects should play out in the times to come
Kumar said.
What to expect in runup to 2019 pollThe market will probably stay in a range as new triggers come in, said Mayuresh Joshi of
Angel Broking.
He advised investors to remain stock-specific and have a bottomup approach
uncertainty, says Sanjeev Prasad of Kotak Institutional Equities
Besides, macro variables are not looking very good
Thankfully, it looks like the March GST numbers will come out better than the run rate and that should help in an otherwise poor macro
"Rather than wasting our energy, time in predicting political results, what we as a team try to do is look out for companies that will grow
irrespective of whatever the political outcome is
We believe if you are bang on good companies, good management with strong moats, politics does not make too much of a difference
businesses keep on compounding earnings no matter who comes and who goes, he said.
