INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
NEW DELHI: Narendra Modi-led BJP may retain power in the 2019 elections, but the magical majority mark may remain elusive for the saffron
Brokerage CLSA has projected a loss of 10-80 seats for the BJP in the 2019 elections
UBS in May said the stock market's multiples were probably pricing in a Modi win in 2019.
Stock investors will be keenly following the
political developments in the runup to the election, as poll outcome had often taken the market by surprise in the past
In 2004, opinion polls had indicated a repeat mandate for the Vajpayee-led NDA
But India elected a Manmohan Singh-led government to rule India for the next decade
In 2009 election, the Congress returned with a better
In 2014 too, the BJP winning 282 seats on its own surprised one and all, CLSA noted.
How the market reacted to the previous three
electionsThe brokerage said if Modi were to lose the election, it would have a big sentimental impact on domestic investors, which can also
impact domestic flows, thus becoming a negating factor for the Indian market
However, it expects the position of BJP and its allies will strengthen to 44 per cent of Upper House by 2020, which will make legislative
business tough should India vote a non-BJP government to power.
8 key states to watchCLSA says eight key states may cost BJP more than 50
Out of them, Madhya Pradesh, UP, Gujarat and Rajasthan accounted for 147 BJP seats in 2014, or 52 per cent of all that BJP won
Equally, a split in non-BJP votes among several opposition parties helped, particularly in UP and partially in MP
Combined with the other large four states of Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Haryana and Chhattisgarh, the party won 201 of the 282 seats in 2014
constituency, then its tally in these eight states would fall by 39 seats
Opposition unity, which is largely restricted to UP, could result in a loss of 50 seats for BJP even without any vote swing, the brokerage
more voters who will exercise franchise in the 2019 elections, it said
The chances of a big increase in the BJP tally in Tamil Nadu, West
work in progress, CLSA said.
