INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
fastest-growing major economy fared in a quarter marked by trade tensions.
Economists estimate a quantum jump in economic growth, led by the
manufacturing sector, thanks a weaker year-ago base
But they are not sure whether the growth will match the fourth quarter print of 7.7 per cent
Most are estimating it at 7.5-7.6 per cent
June quarter compared with 6.8 per cent in March quarter.
Abheek Barua, Chief Economist at HDFC Bank, said the external environment has been
challenging for India since the beginning of this financial year
In contrast to this backdrop, the GDP growth numbers for the first quarter are likely to bring some good news, he said.
Barua pegged his Q1
statistical push, and there are some genuine signs of revival in the economy
The major push to growth is likely to come from manufacturing and services sectors, while agricultural growth is also likely to be
On the demand side, private consumption could gain traction, especially on the back of stronger demand as reflected by lead indicators such
With the rise in rabi output, which hit the market in Q1 of FY19, agriculture growth is likely to come in at 4 per cent
Mining activity is expected to show a pick-up too while agricultural activity is likely to be steady, with the allied agricultural sectors
on a QoQ basis atop a high base
Government spending has been accommodative, which should bode well for the services sector
gross value added (GVA) moderated to 7.2 per cent YoY in June quarter from 7.6 per cent YoY in March quarter, led by a slowdown in momentum
for agriculture and industry
recovery in private consumption and investment
Further, we expect government expenditure to play an important role in supporting growth
