INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
crisis.
For all the turmoil in emerging-market currencies, equity investors in major markets seem relaxed The milestone passed with little
fanfare, but the SP 500 index closed at a record high of 2,914.04 on Aug
Other indexes in developed markets are only moderately below their January peaks.
With President Donald Trump expected to start implementing
Look closely: The slowdown has begun.
Take trade volumes
The only notable occasions when the world trade monitor compiled by the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis has turned down
in a sustained way since 2000 have been on the eve of the 2001 and 2008 recessions, and during the 2015 commodity slump.
You can now add
2018 to that list, with the index coming in negative throughout the second quarter of this year
That drop is particularly striking given that commodities, one of the largest and most volatile subsets of globally traded goods, have been
likely to show further impact, judging by the warnings from business leaders on the eve of the current round of levies.
Even that probably
understates the extent of the underlying slowdown
In the United States , port traffic has been running at record levels in recent months, suggesting the effect of tax cuts and a favorable
monetary policy are more than making up for any trade jitters
However, a chunk of the movements probably relate to businesses stocking up early in order to beat the tariffs, according to the National
The declines in volumes tracked by the CPB are more likely to have been consequences rather than causes of previous economic contractions
Still, as Komal Sri-Kumar wrote for Bloomberg Opinion earlier this year, markets have a poor track record of picking up on the risks from
