INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
NEW DELHI: Yet again, the week gone by caused more wealth destruction on Dalal Street
Overwhelming pessimism, emanating from a plethora of negative news all around, made investors haplessly wait for positive triggers to emerge
and bring in a turnaround.
The market has received a blow from domestic credit crisis, tepid September quarter earnings, newer challenges to
domestic macros, global trade tensions and growth worries.
Closing at a fresh seven-month low, the Sensex plunged 341 points, or 1.01 per
cent, to 33,349 on Friday while the Nifty tanked 95 points, or 0.94 per cent, to 10,030
On a weekly basis, Sensex lost 966 points, or 2.82 per cent, while Nifty came off 274 points, or 2.65 per cent
Amid all the unpredictability, there are some factors that are likely to influence market sentiments next week
Let's take a look:
Global sentiment remain worrying Global sentiments may remain the most important factor for the coming week
Last Friday, the SP500 plunged to touch its early May level, dragged by tech stocks
The selloff in US equities has extended to other markets as well
Weak earnings of Amazon and Alphabet have raised concerns of slowing global economic growth thanks to the trade war and the concerns got
intensified after data on Saturday showed China's industrial profit growth declined for the fifth consecutive month in September
Rumours rule credit marketCalm is yet to return to the domestic credit market, which continues to be depressed despite various measures
taken by RBI, banks and the government to address liquidity concerns
Some traders say a large volume of commercial papers is maturing by November 14 and markets are watching for fresh distress signs in this
NBFC stocks have already been hammered mercilessly, as have been some of the corporate-focused banks.
Geopolitical concerns continue to
hauntTensions between the US and Saudi Arabia have brought fresh troubles for market
The two nations continue to trade barbs over the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi at a time when the world is looking at Saudi to play
dataIndia's infrastructure output data for September will be out on Wednesday
The growth of country's eight core sectors -- coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertilisers, steel, cement and electricity
Since these eight infrastructure sectors constitute about 40.27 per cent of total industrial production, the numbers will be an indication
of the health of the industrial sectors
A positive print may help soothe some nerve
The Nikkei Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) for October will be revealed on Thursday
The numbers improved in September to 52.2 from 51.7 in August
A reading over 50 indicates expansion, while anything below it reflects contraction.
BoJ policy among key global macro dataJapan will reveal
its unemployment data for September on Tuesday amid speculation that the print may remain as it is now
On Wednesday, global markets will keenly watch Bank of Japan (BoJ) take a call on interest rate
The current shorter-term interest rates are unchanged at -0.10 per cent and it is highly unlikely that they will be changed despite trade
war worries and the global selloff
The autumn budget speech by UK finance minister Philip Hammond, China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI data for October, US unemployment data
for October, eurozone's Manufacturing PMI for October and the US balance of trade data for September are other key macro numbers markets
will be watching next week.
Domestic auto sales numbers to be keyAuto companies will come out with their October sales numbers next week
Rising fuel cost, higher insurance premiums and recent price hikes by auto companies slowed passenger and two-wheeler sales in September
New data will show whether the festive season helped lift sales higher or not.
Key Q2 earnings to watchSo far, September quarter earnings
Axis Bank, HDFC, HPCL, Tata Motors, Escorts, Dabur, Tata Power, BPCL, SAIL, Punjab National Bank, NTPC, Hindalco, Lupin and Vedanta will be
among nearly 800 companies that will announce their September quarter earnings next week
Rupee continues to seesawThe rupee depreciated by 20 paise to close at 73.47 against the US dollar on Friday amid a strengthening greenback
and sustained foreign capital outflows
Wobbly crude oil prices, strengthening US dollar and strong bond yields have kept the domestic unit under pressure of late
A better-than-expected US GDP print for third quarter is expected to influence dollar and bond yields, which will eventually impact the
Indian currency.
Crude oil still in uncertain zoneGlobal crude oil prices rose on Friday amid concerns of tight supply after the US
sanctions on Iran come into effect from November 4
However, Saudi Arabia's claim that it will keep the market adequately supplied in the wake of the sanctions has helped ease concerns
If oil prices swing wildly, they will keep domestic market on the tenterhooks
strong bearish candle on the weekly chart
spite of the indices being in the oversold territory on the daily chart
Except for IT and pharma, all other sectoral indices are way below their 200DMAs, which are posing a threat
Bank Nifty has seen a new round of selling, so the bias continues to be bearish
The support for the week is seen at 32,800/9,850 while resistance is seen at 33,870/10,200
Bank Nifty would have a range of 23,850-24,950
The weightage among Nifty 50 stocks is still absolutely tilted towards more correction as 43 stocks are showing a negative trend," said
Vaishali Parekh, senior technical analyst of Prabhudas Lilladher
