INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
Image copyrightGetty ImagesImage caption
Mr Kim and Mr Trump: Pals no longer
Remember when Donald Trump
said he and Kim Jong-un fell in love Well now it seems they just don't talk anymore
Instead, the US and North Korea appear to be staring one another down, waiting for the other to blink or make a move
And neither appears willing to give way.Discussions aimed at setting up a second summit between the two leaders didn't happen as planned
Chairman Kim's aide, the hardliner Kim Yong-chol was supposed to travel to New York and meet US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo
But the TheIndianSubcontinent understands that the meeting was cancelled after the State Department discovered that the North Koreans didn't
get on the plane as planned
The official line is that the meeting will be rescheduled and Mr Trump said he's "very happy" with how things are going, and that he's
in "no rush" while sanctions remain in place.Image copyrightReutersImage caption
It's been a while since Mike Pompeo
(right) was last in Pyongyang
In Seoul, too, they are urging reporters not to read too much into the missed meeting - there
have been missed meetings in the past, they say
Although officials from the Foreign Ministry did express "disappointment"
South Korea's President Moon Jae-in warned me in his TheIndianSubcontinent interview that he expected "bumps and bruises" on the way as
the international community tries to persuade North Korea to disarm.But it's hard not to feel that both the momentum for talks and the
opportunity to engage with North Korea may be slipping away
Even at a lower level, the new US North Korean envoy Stephen Biegun has been in his job for over two months and has still not met his
Pyongyang counterpart, Vice Foreign Minister Choi Sun-hui.Complete denuclearisationThe root of this standoff is that North Korea and the US
have never really agreed on the goalposts of "denuclearisation"
What do they actually mean when they talk about disarmament Yes the two leaders signed an agreement in Singapore, but the lack of detail in
the deal we talked about back then is now coming back to haunt these talks and potentially scupper progress.From the start, Pyongyang has
They will not unilaterally disarm
They want a staged process where they give a little and get something in return
That means, right now they feel they have done enough to warrant sanctions relief
Image copyrightGetty ImagesImage caption
North Korea is rather reluctant to give up its nukes
Both the
US and the UN have placed tough economic penalties on North Korea
Around 90% of its exports are banned including coal, iron ore, seafood and textiles
There are also caps on the amount of oil it can buy
If Kim Jong-un is going to build up his economy as he has promised his people, then he will need the sanctions lifted.However, the US has
There will be no sanctions relief until "complete denuclearisation"
Right now, that seems a lofty and unrealistic goal
President Trump did say that "he'd love to take the sanctions off", and then added that North Korea "would have to be responsive, too".Will
Washington compromiseRussia called a meeting this week of the United Nations Security Council to discuss sanctions on North Korean banks
But the US Ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley, was unequivocal: "The threat is still there
North Korea still has nuclear facilities and they've still not allowed inspectors in to inspect them."Several analysts have called on the US
to adjust its thinking and approach
Bend a little before this process breaks completely
But so far there have been no signs that the Trump administration is willing to do this.So if the US is not prepared to act, what does
Pyongyang do Last week it issued a threat in a statement from the Foreign Ministry's Institute for American Studies
Image copyrightAFPImage caption
Pyongyang has stepped up its rhetoric against the US again
It claimed
that "the improvement of relations and sanctions is incompatible", and that the US was "bragging arrogantly without showing any change in
its stand, while failing to properly understand our repeated demand"
The statement went on to suggest that unless the US removed sanctions, then it could restart its nuclear programme.Let's be clear here,
several studies by US intelligence and by the UN suggest North Korea has not stopped its building or stockpiling of weapons
But it has stopped testing missiles and nuclear weapons, which President Trump has taken as a personal victory
Mr Trump even declared that "there was no longer a nuclear threat from North Korea".North Korea's choicesSo yes, North Korea has a choice
It could test another missile, which would be embarrassing to a US President who has declared that the problem was solved.But that would
Image copyrightkcnaImage caption
So far, Mr Kim has held off launching new test missiles
A missile test
is more likely to anger an unpredictable Donald Trump who hates when his administration shows any sign of weakness
It would, once again, raise international condemnation and is unlikely to have the desired effect of sanctions relief
Another missile or nuclear test would also harm North Korea's developing relationship with the South, where several companies are poised
to invest as soon as the restrictions are lifted.Kim Jong-un's other choice is to blink first and fulfil some of his promises
He could let inspectors into Punggye-ri, the state's only known nuclear test site
TV cameras were brought in to witness a series of explosions there in May, which North Korea claims was its complete destruction
President Moon said Mr Kim told him he would allow inspectors in, and there have been reports in South Korea that preparations are being
This would allow Pyongyang to argue that they are once again keeping their end of the bargain
Mr Kim could also close the Yongbyon nuclear facility where North Korea is believed to produce fissile material for nuclear weapons
North Korea pledged to close it earlier this year, but only if the US takes corresponding measures
It would be very difficult politically for Mr Kim to do this first, so the US would have to put something good on the table for Pyongyang to
Image copyrightGetty ImagesImage caption
Kim Jong-un is thought to be under pressure as a young leader
It is worth mentioning that several people I speak to, who have regular contact with leaders in Pyongyang, have told me about the pressures
facing Kim Jong-un as a young leader
He is surrounded by a number of military hardliners who are not willing to disarm, nor do they wish to be seen as bowing to US
requests.Pyongyang's savvy gamesPerhaps both sides are calculating that they can simply "run the clock", play for time and wait
The US can keep sanctions in place until North Korea takes further action
Pyongyang can continue to issue warnings and develop other diplomatic ties.However, this is a huge gamble for the US
North Korea's nuclear arsenal has been labelled an urgent problem by US defence and intelligence chiefs
That threat is still there and the longer this standoff continues, the more likely it is that Pyongyang will continue to develop weapons
The stringent economic sanctions imposed on the state may only have a limited effect
The Trump administration had managed to get China and Russia on board with its "maximum pressure" policy for some months
But reports suggest the borders have become porous in places and the supplies are making their way into North Korea
Kim Jong-un has proved to be a savvy political operator and has rebuilt relationships with his neighbours
The US maintains that another summit between Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump will take place early next year
The two leaders may prefer dealing with one another directly
But it still needs talks to take place between those lower down the chain of command to sort out the details of a deal
A timetable for disarmament and corresponding US actions for instance.Without those details on paper, as you can see, we end up with what is
the equivalent of this diplomatic game of chicken which puts president Mr Trump's much applauded North Korea policy in danger of crashing.
