INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
RBI surprised markets on October 5 by not hiking interest rates.The Reserve Bank of India won't raise interest rates until at least April,
much later than thought just one month ago, according to economists polled by Reuters who say that rise will probably be a "one-and-done."
The recent public row between the government and the RBI over policy matters unrelated to monetary policy has "somewhat diminished" the
central bank's independence according to a third of the 46 respondents, though two-thirds saw no major impact.After the RBI surprised
markets on October 5 by not hiking interest rates, a Reuters poll taken just after that meeting forecast that the central bank would instead
tighten policy at its December 5 meeting, and hike again in 2019.But the latest poll of 70 economists, taken between November 22-28,
predicted the RBI would hold its repo rate at 6.50 per cent at its meeting next week
Over 60 per cent of 51 common contributors with last month's poll switched their forecasts to no change from a hike predicted earlier."The
trajectory (for rate hikes) will be lower than what markets have been expecting so far because of favourable inflation and as the growth
outlook has turned soft," said Shashank Mendiratta, India economist at ANZ.The RBI is now forecast to hike its repo rate in the April-June
quarter next year, taking it to 6.75 per cent, and then to hold it steady for at least another year.This follows the Monetary Policy
Committee's surprise shift at the October meeting to a stance of "calibrated tightening".At the time, economists had been unsure how to
interpret that guidance, but, based on the Reuters poll results, they now think it means less tightening.Even those economists who forecast
more than one rate rise said that the risk to the RBI's rate path was for slower rate rises.Since early last month, oil prices have
dropped around 30 per cent and the rupee has recovered about 5 per cent after touching a lifetime low of 74.48 per dollar on October 11
Retail inflation remained below the RBI's 4 per cent medium-term target for a third straight month in October.Gross domestic product data
for the July-September quarter is due to be released late on Friday, and a Reuters poll forecast that it would show growth had slowed to 7.4
per cent from 8.2 per cent in the previous quarter, making disappointing reading for a government that faces an election within six
for banks, provide more liquidity to the shadow banking sector, support lending to small businesses and to let the government use more of
the RBI's surplus reserves to boost the economy.The skirmish triggered uncertainty in financial markets over the RBI's independence, and
while a central bank board meeting on November 19 ended in cordial fashion some of the more contentious issues were held over, and would
likely come up during the next board meeting on December14.Thirty of 46 respondents to an additional question said tensions with the
government had not affected the central bank's independence
But the remaining 16 respondents said it was somewhat diminished.Over 90 per cent of 45 economists said it was unlikely that the government
would intervene directly in the RBI's monetary policy over the next six months.The RBI introduced a monetary policy committee in 2016 to
decide interest rate changes
Three of the six members on the MPC panel are external members nominated by the government, but the RBI governor holds a casting vote in the
event of deadlock."It is hard to say the RBI will continue to give in to the demands of the government for injecting more cash into the
system or easing policy just to support growth," said Prakash Sakpal, Asia economist at ING."The government's demand has more of a
political angle than a real economic angle to it."
