INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
Gross domestic product (GDP) data will be released on Friday at 5:30 pm.NEW DELHI: The annual economic growth probably moderated to 7.4 per
cent in the July-September quarter, according to a Reuters poll, weakening just as Prime Minister Narendra Modi led-government gets set for
That is still faster than China, but a come down from the more than two-year high of 8.2 per cent set in the June quarter and some
economists foresee the slowdown continuing though to the election at least
Prasanna, chief economist at ICICI Securities Primary Dealership.Prasanna was cautiously optimistic about the outlook, but much would depend
on the election outcome."Any signs of political uncertainty could affect market and business sentiment," he said.Meantime, while the growth
more than 1.2 crore young Indians entering the labour force each year.Having swept to power in 2014 promising to galvanise the economy, PM
Modi has been criticised as even in the good quarters the unevenness of the economy has meant that growth in jobs hasn't kept pace.The
unemployment rate rose to a two-year high of 6.9 per cent in October, and 2.95 crore youth were looking for jobs, according to a report
released earlier this month by Centre for Monitoring India Economy (CMIE), a think tank.Several factors conspired to hold the economy back
during the middle of this year, namely; a weak rupee, and a squeeze in the shadow banking sector that hindered both investment and
consumption.At least one handicap has been removed as oil prices have come down sharply from their heights of earlier in the year.But data
for industrial production, vehicle sales, and tourism arrivals has made disappointing reading."India's growth is likely to soften in the
September quarter, given the dismal consumption and investment trends following a liquidity squeeze in the shadow banking sector," said
Charu Chanana, emerging Asia economist at Continuum Economics in Singapore.The gross domestic product data will be released on Friday at
5:30 pm.The Reserve Bank of India has forecast economic growth of 7.4 per cent for the financial year ending in March, recovering from 6.7
per cent in the previous year, the slowest in four years.On Wednesday, a government panel announced a revised growth estimates that made PM
Modi's administration record look better than the previous Congress-led governments.Having estimated back in August that the Congress
oversaw an average annual growth rate of 8.1 per cent during its decade in power, the Statistics Ministry revised that number down to 6.82
per cent for 2005/06 to 2011/12 period, putting it well below the 7.35 per cent average for the first four years of PM Modi's
term.DOMESTIC HEADWINDSSome economists expect economic growth could slow to around 7 per cent in the second half of the current fiscal year
due to state spending cuts, muted rural demand, and the statistical impact of higher growth in the same period a year ago.A report released
earlier this week by State Bank of India, the largest commercial bank, said the government could cut its spending by Rs 70,000 crore ($10
billion) to meet budgeted fiscal deficit target of 3.3 per cent of GDP, as it fears a shortfall in tax collections.A fall in food prices has
hit rural incomes in recent months, which in turn has dampened sales of consumer durables and other products.More positively, the recent
drop in inflation and oil prices and the rupee's recovery against dollar have removed pressure for an increase in interest rates, and a
Reuters poll of economists predicted that rates will be left unchanged when the central bank's monetary policy committee meets on December
