Noted economist Swaminathan Aiyar on Thursday said the Karnataka cliffhanger has nothing to do with the volatility being witnessed in Indias financial markets.
Instead, it has to do with the developments in international markets.The liquidity flight out of emerging markets, problems in places like Turkey and Argentina, the spike in oil prices and rising interest rates in the United States are more adverse factors for markets than anything we are seeing in Indian politics, he told ETNow Thursday morning.Aiyar, who takes plenty of interest in Indias electoral politics, says while the Karnataka situation is still fluid, whatever happens is not going to reflect well on Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
There is likely to be a series of allegations.
Already Kumaraswamy had said that his MLAs are being offered Rs 100 crore each to switch positions.The noted economist has also gone on record, saying the Modi-led BJP will win 50 to 70 less seats in a general election this time than what it had own in 2014.This is a very-very distant prediction.
We will have to refine the things as we come closer to the actual date.
All I would say is that in the coming general election, Modi would lose a significant number of seats, but still be back in power, he said.Aiyar, Consulting Editor of ETNow, said it would not make much difference if the BJP fails to rule Karnataka, and in some way, it is probably more important for the Congress than it is for the BJP.He said the real test for the saffron party lies ahead in central India, I would say BJP would have a very tough time in central India and could lose two or all three of those states.
Siddaramaiah felt the blow of anti-incumbency even though he was regarded as a pretty reasonably good chief minister.
The BJP is incumbent in the three central Indian states Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.
I think BJP will realise it is going to be in under pressure in all those states.
It is also the incumbent in New Delhi and I am pretty sure it is going to lose some seats, Aiyar said.He said he was sufficiently optimistic to believe that Yeddyurappa and company would fail to buy over enough MLAs to make a difference.
He says all of the horse-trading attempts will fail.
I hope at the end of it all, in 15 days, Yeddyurappa will have to admit that he has not been able to change the current situation and that JD-S and the Congress would come to power.
I hope that happens, he said.
Aiyar also warned against trying to read the nations mood in the Karnataka verdict.
Karnataka has always been an outlier.
It has often got in a direction different from the rest of the country.
So I would say Karnatakas verdict is not reflective of the country as a whole.
Every state would be a separate political entity with its own characteristics.