Stock Market

LONDON: As the United Kingdoms Brexit crisis deepens, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have differing views of the ultimate outcome but the two titans of Wall Street agree on one thing: They dont believe there will be a no-deal Brexit.Unless Prime Minister Theresa May can get a Brexit deal approved by the British parliament, then she will have to decide whether to delay Brexit or thrust the worlds fifth largest economy into chaos by leaving without a deal on March 29.Goldman Sachs said it sees a 50 per cent probability of May getting a Brexit divorce deal ratified, adding that lawmakers would ultimately block a no-deal exit if needed.Goldman said it saw the probability of a no-deal exit at 15 per cent and the probability of no Brexit at around 35 per cent.There does exist a majority in the House of Commons willing to avoid a no deal Brexit (if called upon to do so), but there does not yet exist a majority in the House of Commons willing to support a second referendum (at least at this stage), Goldman said in a note to clients on Friday.The prime minister will repeatedly try to defer the definitive parliamentary vote on her negotiated Brexit deal, and the intensification of tail risks will continue to play a role in incentivising the eventual ratification of that deal.





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