NEW DELHI: The domestic equity market registered losses for the week gone by, the fourth in a row, amid worries over liquidity crunch, suspicion over corporate governance issues with some midcap companies, a steady fall in the rupee, spike in crude oil prices, a fresh rate hike by the US Federal Reserve and FO rollovers.
September turned out to be the worst month for Dalal Street since February 2016, with the Sensex plunging 2,418 points, or 6.26 per cent, and the Nifty 750 points, or 6.42 per cent.
For the week, the Sensex erased 614 points, or 1.67 per cent and the Nifty50 213 points, or 1.91 per cent.
For Nifty, it was the fifth consecutive week of loss.The coming week, which happens to be a truncated one as Tuesday is a market holiday for Gandhi Jayanti, RBIs money policy review will be one of the key market drivers along with some macroeconomic numbers and movement in the rupee and crude oil prices.
Lets take a look at all the factors that will dominate market proceedings over the coming week:RBIs money policy reviewThe central banks fourth bimonthly money policy review of this financial year will be held on October 3-5.
Market analysts believe RBI may feel compelled to go for a rate hike for the third time, considering the rupees poor health, steady rise in crude oil prices and Feds third rate hike.
In its August policy, RBI had raised the repo rate for the second consecutive time by 25 basis points to 6.50 per cent.
Manufacturing and services PMI printsThe Nikkei Manufacturing PMI for September will be released on Monday.
Indias manufacturing activity moderated in August following a softer rise in output and new orders.
The Nikkei India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index declined to 51.7 in August from 52.3 in July.
The services PMI data will be out on Thursday.
Indias services sector activity grew at a slower pace in August, compared with July's 21-month high.
The seasonally-adjusted Nikkei India Services Business Activity Index fell from July's peak of 54.2 to 51.5 in August.
In PMI parlance, a print above 50 means expansion, while a score below that denotes contraction.
Auto sales numbers to be watchedAuto companies will announce their September sales data this week.
Analysts say September numbers may turn out to be a bit softer, but October and November should show improvement on festive sales.
The festive season hasnt started on expected lines in 2018, as Kerala floods washed out Onam festivities and reports of floods from other parts of the country have dampened the cheer.
Nevertheless, Indias Motown is gearing up for two months of festive sales (that include Ganesh Chaturthi, Navratra and Diwali), which contribute close to 30 per cent of their annual sales.
The four months of August-November is expected to see 26 new launches, facelifts and model refresh, ET reported.
Global macroeconomic numbersChina, Japan, the US, the UK and the euro zone will announce their manufacturing PMIs for September next week.
Japans consumer confidence data for September will be disclosed on Tuesday.
On Friday, the US will release its unemployment rate data for September.
All these numbers are expected to dictate market sentiment across the globe.Governments next fiscal moveThe government has taken many steps in recent times to boost the domestic currency and meet its fiscal deficit target.
However, those steps have not been able to meet expectations so far.
Apart from raising import duties on several items, the government has cut gross borrowing for the year by Rs 70,000 crore and stuck to the net borrowings target as planned in the Budget, sending out a strong signal about its intent to meet its fiscal deficit target.
The efficacy of these steps will be assessed only after sometime and the market will closely watch if the government announces any fresh measures should the rupee continue to slide unabated.
Earnings season set to kick inDomestic companies will begin released their second quarter earnings from this week.
As per data available with BSE, the electric utilities firm KP Energy will kick off the earnings season on Wednesday, followed by commercial trading and distribution firm Kushal on Thursday, petrochemicals player Goa Carbon on Friday.
Stocks will swing to the beats of the earnings outcome.
Technical outlook confusingLast Fridays closing level offered strong resistance to Nifty for the entire week, while that days low offered support.
That said, the bears have strengthened their grip on the market, as the NSE barometer formed bearish candles on eight out of 10 sessions.
Analysts feel as long as the index stays below 11,050, the short-term outlook will remain negatively biased.
Small comebacks, though, cannot be ruled out.
Nifty has once again taken support around the 10,850 mark.
The chances of it breaking this support cannot be ruled out, as investor sentiment and market bias remain weak.
Bank Nifty, too, has maintained in the previous support at 24,900 level, and select stocks like HDFC Bank, Axis Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank look promising.
The support for the market is seen at 35,620/10,720 for the week while resistance is seen at 37,000/11,180 levels.
Bank Nifty will have a trading range between 24,460 and 25,900 levels, said Vaishali Parekh, senior technical analyst at Prabhudas Lilladher.