Biased news outlets, political opportunists and publicityhungry analysts are whipping the stock market into a frenzy that goes beyond anything justified by economic or earnings fundamentals, according to JPMorgan Chase Co.
strategists led by Marko Kolanovic.Kolanovic, global head of macro quantitative and derivatives research, was among the JPM analysts who published a year-ahead outlook on Friday with an expected 2019 target of 3,100 on the SP 500 Index, implying a gain of almost 18 per cent from current levels.The latest sell-off has overpriced the risk of recession, said Kolanovics colleague John Normand, head of crossasset fundamental strategy.The benchmark stock index sank 4.6 per cent in the latest week, to 2,633 points, its biggest decline since March, and is down 1.5 per cent for the year to date.
In the past three weeks, US stocks have lurched between between gains and losses of at least 3 per cent, volatility not seen such the global financial crisis a decade ago.To some extent, we trace the disconnect between negative sentiment and macroeconomic reality to the reinforcing feedback loop of real and fake negative news, the strategists wrote.And they see a lot of factors playing into that loop.
Domestic political opposition may have an interest to paint a negative economic picture, individual market analysts gain more visibility and coverage with negative calls, and foreign adversaries amplify a negative news cycle in order to foster divisions and erode confidence in financial markets and the economy, the strategists wrote.Kolanovic monitors sentiment indicators, including how often topics are mentioned in news reports.
And hes concerned with certain news outlets that, while presenting at least a veneer of credibility, also contain darker offerings.If we add to this an increased number of algorithms that trade based on posts and headlines, the impact on price action and investor psychology can be significant, Kolanovic added.