Independent news outlet Novaya Gazeta Europe reported on Monday that Ramzan Kadyrov, the strongman leader of Chechnya, has been living with a potentially fatal illness for more than five years, prompting the Kremlin to start working on a plan for a managed transfer of power.In the first part of its investigation into the political landscape in the North Caucasus republic, Novaya Gazeta Europe detailed 47-year-old Kadyrovs many hospitalizations for his alleged pancreatic necrosis and how both his and the Kremlins PR teams have tried to conceal the Chechen leaders rapidly deteriorating condition.The outlet also named Major General Apti Alaudinov, the commander of Kadyrovs own Akhmat military unit fighting on the frontlines in Ukraine, as the successor favored by the Kremlin.To make sense of the bombshell investigation spotlighting one of Russias most volatile regions, The Moscow Times asked leading experts and activists for their first impressions and predictions for Chechnyas future after Kadyrov.Tanya Lokshina, associate director of Human Rights Watch's Europe and Central Asia divisionI have the utmost respect for colleagues at Novaya Gazeta who have been looking at Chechnya with full professional dedication for many years and who are really quite knowledgeable as far as Chechnya is concerned.
At the same timeKadyrov is very far from dead yet, Lokshina told The Moscow Times.I think what's important right now is that Kadyrov's position in Chechnya is very strong.
And it's not about Kadyrov alone as a single-handed dictatorIf he dies or if his health deteriorates and he won't be able to continue with carrying out his duties, there are quite a few people behind him who would be continuing in the same vein, said Lokshina.The type of abuses that we've been documenting in Chechnya for many years, abuses perpetrated with complete impunity, the absolute lack of freedom that contemporary Chechnya is infamous for, are not going to disappear if Kadyrov disappears."Abubakar Yangulbaev, Chechen human rights lawyer and activistChechen activists, opposition figures and dissidents have been discussing Apti Alaudinovs behavior, ambitions of [the chair of the Chechen parliament] Magomed Daudov, as well as Kadyrovs childrenand his health for at least the past year, Yangulbaev told The Moscow Times.
So nothing in this investigation surprised me.Yangulbaev said he believes Alaudinov, who was singled out in the investigation, is just one of several potential successors of Kadyrov who, if chosen, would merely keep the seat warm until Kadyrovs eldest son now 18 comes of age to succeed him.Alaudinovs role would resemble that of second Chechen president Alu Alkhanov, who served as a placeholder for Ramzan Kadyrov after his father Akhmad Kadyrov was assassinated in 2004, according to Yangulbaev.Alaudinov will be like that.
He can only temporarily guard the seat [for Kadyrovs son] because he has no authority in the eyes of the Chechen people and especially in the eyes of Kadyrovites, who are trained like service dogs, said Yangulbaev.Intuitively, right now I dont really expect any changes, Yangulbaev said when asked whether Kadyrovs sudden death could plunge Chechnya into turmoil.
But these things usually happen unpredictably and unexpectedly.Harold Chambers, an analyst focusing on nationalism, conflict and security in the North CaucasusThe assessment of Alaudinovs viability I found not plausible, as it was detached from his own history, Kadyrov regime internal dynamics, Kadyrov regime domestic politics, and the regimes relationship with Moscow, Chambers said of Novaya Gazeta Europes investigation.
They considered Chechnya as just another federal subject, rather than the Kadyrov familys personal fiefdom, with internal formal and informal structures developed accordingly.Chambers said he believes that Chechnya is unlikely to descend into chaos unless there is a regime change in the Kremlin before Kadyrov leaves power.I expect a projection of stability regardless of how succession is handled.
Beneath the faade of propaganda, however, there will surely be in-fighting over division of responsibilities and power, unless one of the Kadyrov sons is ready to take over the role of governor, he told The Moscow Times.Regardless, Kadyrovs death would certainly create a perceived window of opportunity for resumed larger-scale conflict, meaning an uptick in militant activity would likely occur.
I say perceived because there is a chance the chain of command remains continuous I suspect this matter is already somewhat settled, and likely has been for a while.Ivan U.
Kyszcz, a researcher of Russian policy at the International Center for Defense and Security in Tallinn, EstoniaI'm conflicted about this story [published by Novaya Gazeta Europe], Kyszcz told The Moscow Times.On the one hand, the story does bring together many points that we have noticed before, which have been picked up by [other] media and analysts.
I trust Novaya Gazetabut this is also the type of story that could be manipulated for purposes of disinformation.
They've promised that there would be more reports, so I'm holding my judgment until new evidence is presented.Kyszcz said he was not persuaded that the Akhmat units Apti Alaudinov could be Kadyrovs potential successor.Based on how Kadyrov got his position in the first place that it was kind of a dynastic succession I strongly believe that the successor would be if not Kadyrovs child, then at least someone who is incredibly close to him, said Kyszcz.These types of precedents are very important.
They do shape the way actors think about how succession might be done.
Of course, that doesn't preclude the possibility of other paths and other outcomes.