President Vladimir Putin never ever prepared to accept Ukrainian equivalent Volodymyr Zelenskys deal to fulfill individually in Istanbul, sources in the Russian government and the Foreign Ministry and individuals near the Kremlin have actually told The Moscow Times.The reality that the Kremlin kept Putins travel strategies shrouded in secrecy up until the night before the very first direct contact between Russian and Ukrainian delegations in 3 years highlights Moscows reluctance.Although sources stated Putin does not see Zelensky as his equal and will only consent to meet him in case of his public capitulation, he might not decline the challenge outright because of U.S.
President Donald Trumps calls for the Russian leader to engage with his opponent.All of The Moscow Times sources spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.Why the Kremlin is keeping Putins plans secretZelensky threw down the onslaught to Putin on Sunday, hours after the Russian leader neglected Ukraines Western-backed require a 30-day ceasefire and rather proposed restoring direct talks with Kyiv in Istanbul on Thursday.By Wednesday, Moscow had actually still not validated who would represent Russia at the negotiating table.
It lastly verified that it would send a delegation headed by Kremlin aide Vladimir Medinsky in an instruction released late Wednesday.This silence was a deliberate method created to keep Kyiv and its allies on edge and enable a last-minute change of strategies, former Russian diplomat Boris Bondarev informed The Moscow Times.Russian diplomacy largely follows the same protocols it performed in the Soviet era, with all top-level talks diligently prepared in advance.As an outcome, spontaneous settlements on the opponents terms specifically when Russia ought to hold the advantage are out of the concern, a government authorities, a present diplomat and a Kremlin insider informed The Moscow Times.This is not how we do things.
Selected arbitrators do all the foundation and prepare the documents.
Only then does the president step in to go over terms agreed in advance, said one source.Our leader doesnt like being pushed.
Thats a widely known truth, added a previous senior Kremlin official.Moreover, Moscow does not recognize Zelensky as a legitimate negotiating partner.Russian propaganda and Putin himself have actually declared Zelensky to be invalid, meaning Moscow can only sign a peace handle a brand-new Ukrainian president or with the management of Ukraines parliament.Russia has actually repeatedly tried to reject the Ukrainian leader because of Zelenskys defiance in the face of Russias invasion, which is a particular irritant for Moscow, as The Moscow Times has previously reported.While Zelenskys term technically expired in 2024, Ukraine can not hold presidential elections under martial law, which it enforced due to Russias full-scale invasion.Zelensky is just suitable for signing a capitulation.
Duration, an existing Russian diplomat said.The Trump roadblockThe primary challenge preventing Putin from publicly rebuking Zelensky appears to be Trump, who has actually prompted Moscow to pursue a ceasefire and has hinted he might take a trip to Turkey himself if Putin attends.Our declaration on resuming talks in Istanbul never discussed our presidents involvement.
For the previous several weeks, weve remained in extensive communication with Washington, and in current days it has actually reached a fever pitch.
My coworkers are searching for a compromise that wont anger Trump, a Kremlin-connected authorities said.If Trump were to personally invite Putin, that would change everything.
However Zelensky is not Putins equivalent, and he does not want to speak with him face-to-face.
After Zelenskys final notices, accepting satisfy would appear like backing down and losing face, said Bondarev.A game of nerves and opticsThe Kremlin had been weighing a number of choices as it dragged out the thriller over whether Putin would attend.The initially would see Putin fly to Turkey but not to meet Zelensky.Because Putin tries not to acknowledge Zelensky at all and sees him merely as Washingtons proxy, he would look for to hold a brief summit with Trump in Istanbul rather, according to a present Russian government official.Former Kremlin staffer turned analyst Alexei Chesnakov voiced a comparable view, stating this technique would permit Putin to show control and tactical flexibility.If Putin appeared, Chesnakov said, it would send out a powerful signal of direct dialogue with the U.S.
amidst Washingtons larger rapprochement with Moscow.
Trump, he included, is willing to rearrange his schedule to fulfill Putin, making the occasion considerable by default.In this occasion, Zelensky loses the effort.
He will come off as hysterical and undependable in comparison to a composed Putin, Chesnakov argued.Should Putin skip the journey entirely, Zelensky will be left empty-handed, appearing like an errand young boy, Chesnakov said.Russia has strong arguments to justify Putin not going.
Leaders just fulfill when there is a clear agenda and pre-agreed choices.
Putins individual participation remains a card up his sleeve that can be played to protect better conditions later on, Chesnakov said.What does Putin actually want?Putins main goal is to convince Trump that Russia is truly thinking about peace, which is why he proposed sending out a delegation to Istanbul and resuming talks from where they left off in 2022, described Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin.The Kremlin is trying to get Trump either to broker a beneficial deal for Moscow or to conclude that peace is unattainable and blame Kyiv and its European allies.
That method, the war in Ukraine would no longer be a U.S.
concern.
It would just be another file in Washingtons relationship with Moscow, Gabuev said.The issue is that Putin has not abandoned his maximalist demands for the war.
He still wishes to combine Russias territorial gains, trigger routine modification in Kyiv and considerably decrease the size of Ukraines military.These objectives are inappropriate to Washington and to Trump himself.This is where Putins method falls apart.
He is not getting what he needs from Trump to attain his domestic goals.
And if diplomacy fails, he will attempt to get it on the battlefield, Gabuev concluded.What may eventually sink any opportunity of U.S.-Russia rapprochement, former diplomat Bondarev stated, is the deeper structural conflict in between the two nations as world powers.More specifically, the natural conflict between Putins program and Americas worldwide interests.
Putin sees this plainly, even if U.S.
rhetoric tries to ignore it, Bondarev stated.
So what kind of rapprochement can we even talk about? The only acceptable result for Putin is Trumps capitulation and Americas pull away into a regional power.