By William HorobinMomentum is easing across worlds major economies, according to a gauge OECD uses to predict turning points.The Composite Leading Indicator is latest sign of a synchronized slowdown in global growth, adding to recession warnings sparked by industrial figures in Germany last week and and slumping trade figures for China earlier on Monday.The indicator, which is designed to anticipate turning points six-to-nine months ahead, has been ticking down since start of 2018 and fell again in November.
The OECD singled out United States and Germany, where it said tentative signs of easing momentum are now confirmed.Just two weeks into 2019, OECD economic indicator follows a run of numbers that mean growth this year could be even slower than currently anticipated.
For Bloomberg Economics, data point to slowdown, not meltdown, but it still says loss of momentum is striking.What Our Economists Say:The early signs from data suggest world economy lost momentum as it entered 2019.
The median from a mapping of global measures suggests gains may have dropped below 3 percent mark for first time since late 2016.
Thats about 0.7 percentage point below average since 2010 and a full percentage point below 2000--2007 average.
That slowdown is striking.--Bloomberg Economics.
Read Global DashboardChinaTrade-tensions with United States are showing up in data.
Chinese exports slumped 4.4 percent in December from a year earlier, marking worst performance in dollar terms since 2016.
Imports also dropped most since 2016, hinting at softening demand at home that could have implications for exporters to China.The numbers sent stocks lower in Europe and Asia.
The Stoxx 600 Index was down almost 1 percent as of 12 p.m.
Frankfurt time.Euro AreaIndustry in regions major economies had a grim month in November.
Output declined 1.7 percent, with a slump in Germany sparking talk that it could shrink for a second quarter, putting it in a technical recession.
There are also concerns about Italys economy, while riots and protests in France have hit growth there.USJobs growth remains strong, according to latest payrolls report, but measures of activity have weakened.
The Institute for Supply Managements key manufacturing gauge is at a two-year low, and housing market is cooling.
Overall expansion is forecast to moderate this year, partly due to a fading boost from Trump administrations tax cuts.Federal Reserve policy makers have taken note of changed outlook and suggested they could pause their interest-rate hike cycle as they await clarity.
Chairman Jerome Powell said last week that Fed can be patient and flexible and wait and see what does evolve.